How to Read Football Odds & Probability

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Learn how to read and bet on sports odds
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If you want to make a bet on a football game, understanding the odds for each team is important so you know how much money you’re wagering or winning. Many people bet on football games based on the point spread of the game while others use the money line odds. There may be various other types of odds you can bet on, but they are usually not as common. Once you place your bet, watch the game so you can see the results and possibly win big!

Understanding Football Point Spread Odds

The favorite team is indicated with a minus (-) sign. The favored team needs to win by the indicated point value in order for a bet on that team to pay out. For example, a team with -4.5 odds needs to win by at least 4.5 points for your bet to make money.

Method 1
Method 1 of 3:

Understanding Point Spread Odds

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  1. Check the odds of the game you want to bet on and find the team that has a “-” sign next to its point spread. Check the number listed after the “-” sign so you know how many points the team needs to win by to pay out the bet. If the team doesn’t win by more than the number listed, then you lose the bet. [1]
    • For example, if the number next to the team says -5, then the team needs to win by more than 5 points in order for you to win a bet.
    • The number for the point spread may also be a fraction or decimal, such as -4 ½ or -4.5. In this case, the team must win by the next round number of points, which is 5 in this example.
  2. Check the point spread odds for which team has a plus sign next to the numbers. If the team wins by any number of points, then you win the bet. You can also win the bet if the team loses by less than the number of points listed by the bookie. If the team loses by more than the amount listed, then you lose the amount you wagered. [2]
    • For example, if the odds were listed as +4.5, then the team must either win the game by any point margin, or lose by less than 5 points.

    Tip: The number listed for the favored and underdog teams will be the same. Be sure to pay attention to if there’s a “-” or “+” in front of the number.

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  3. Usually when you win a bet, you’ll get your original bet back plus an additional amount based on the odds. If the point spread for both of the teams is a round number, then there could be a tie, also known as a “push.” If a team scores the exact amount listed on the point spread, then you do not win additional money, but you’ll receive the wager you placed. [3]
    • For example, if a team is listed as -4 and they only win by 4 points, then there is no winner and you get your original bet.
  4. If there isn’t an obvious underdog for the game you’re betting on, then the odds may be listed as “Pick.” If the point spread doesn’t have a number, choose which team you think will win the game overall. If the team you selected wins, then you win the bet. [4]
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Method 2
Method 2 of 3:

Learning Money Line Betting

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  1. money line odds are different than point spreads since they don’t concern what the score of the game was. If you bet on the winning team in a money line bet, then you get paid out. However, if you bet on the losing team, then you lose the money you wagered on them. [5]
    • Favored teams usually cost more to place a bet and pay out less.
    • Underdog teams cost less and let you win more money, but they’re riskier since the team may not be as good.

    Tip: You can always wager less to win a fraction of the amount. For example, if the odds are -200 and you wager $100 USD, then you would win $50 USD rather than $100 USD if they won.

  2. Look for the team that has a “-” sign next to the money line odds so you know which team is favored. Check the number listed next to the “-” sign so you know how much money you need to wager. If you wager the amount listed and the favored team wins, then you win your bet back as well as an additional $100 USD. [6]
    • For example, if the odds are listed as -250, then you need to pay $250 USD in order to win an additional $100 USD.
  3. Check which team has the “+” sign next to the money line odds on the listing. If you think the team is going to win, make a $100 USD wager on them for your bet. If they win the game by any point margin, then you receive your original bet back as well as the amount listed on the odds. [7]
    • For example, if the team has money line odds of +235, then you pay a $100 USD wager. If the team wins, you get back a total of $335 USD back.
    • Wagers on the underdog tend to be riskier since the team is not expected to win.
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Method 3
Method 3 of 3:

Knowing Other Types of Bets

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  1. You can only place parlay bets if you already bet on multiple other games. If you’re confident that all of the bets you made are correct and will win, then you can ask to parlay to them together to earn a better payout. However, if even 1 of the bets you made loses, then you lose the parlay completely. [8]
    • Some bookies may offer a “teaser” parlay that lets you adjust the point spread to help an underdog or favored team win. The payoffs on “teaser” are usually not as high as a regular bet or parlay.
  2. The over/under is a single number that’s usually listed for football games, and the number refers to the total number of points both teams score. If you think the teams will score more points than the number listed, then bet over. Otherwise, if you think the team will score less, bey under the number listed. [9]
    • For example, the over/under may be listed as 42, which means the teams’ combined score must be greater in order to win.
    • If the combined scores are the same as the over/under number, then you receive the amount you originally wagered.
  3. Prop bets can be made on any aspect of a football game and are usually based on a yes or no question. For example, you may bet that a quarterback is going to pass a certain number of yards. Talk to your bookie about any prop bets to see what the odds are for them, and make your wager based on them. [10]
    • Some prop bets are completely left up to chance. For example, some people make prop bets on the coin toss during the Super Bowl.
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Community Q&A

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  • Question
    Who has the better chance of winning, a 50-1 odds or a 75-1 odds?
    Tim Harrison
    Community Answer
    A bet with 50-1 odds has a better chance of winning than a bet with 75-1 odds. Lower odds (50-1) indicate a higher probability of success, though the payout will be smaller compared to the higher odds (75-1), which suggest a lower likelihood of winning but a larger potential reward if successful.
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  • Question
    How do you convert odds to probability?
    Nether101
    Community Answer
    Flip the numbers and convert them to a percentage. For example, 25-1 odds is a probability of 1/25 or 4%.
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      References

      1. ↑ https://athlonsports.com/nfl/what-does-line-mean-sports-betting
      2. ↑ https://athlonsports.com/nfl/what-does-line-mean-sports-betting
      3. ↑ https://www.sportsrec.com/read-nfl-football-odds-4489352.html
      4. ↑ https://youtu.be/EpayIWU25KE?t=38
      5. ↑ https://www.sportsrec.com/read-nfl-football-odds-4489352.html
      6. ↑ https://www.sportsrec.com/read-nfl-football-odds-4489352.html
      7. ↑ https://newsday.sportsdirectinc.com/odds/nfl.aspx
      8. ↑ https://www.thelines.com/betting/parlay/
      9. ↑ https://newsday.sportsdirectinc.com/odds/nfl.aspx
      1. ↑ https://www.thelines.com/betting/prop-bets/

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